Analysis: Expect less spot LNG to India

Vol 16, PW 25 (11 Jul 13) Midstream & Downstream

Annoying shutdowns in Nigeria partly explain why India will see less spot LNG in the second half of this year.

PETROWATCH learns around 30 spot cargoes will arrive in India between July and December. Contrast that with 38 spot and short-term cargoes imported during the first half of the year at Dahej, Hazira and Dabhol, adding up to 6,097,434-cubic metres of LNG.

"Spot cargoes aren't easily available right now,” says a LNG market analyst. “This will continue well into 2014.

” Imports in 2013 are likely to fall sharply compared to 2012, which saw 85 spot cargoes arrive, bringing in over 13m cubic metres of LNG. Many thought dwindling domestic gas supplies would result in spot imports increasing this year to 100 cargoes.

What changed Nigeria's LNG exports have been hit by gas pipeline leaks triggered by sabotage. Since June, the Bonny Island LNG export facility is under siege by the navy over a tax dispute between Nigeria LNG and the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency.

Elsewhere, a GAIL source complains that no additional LNG supply facility is coming onstream until 2014. "Established LNG facilities face declining supplies," he says.

GAIL and GSPC are also focusing more on long-term contracts. GSPC imported 11 spot cargoes in 2012 but brought in just one spot cargo in the first half of 2013.

By contrast it took delivery of three term cargoes from Total under a 500,000-tonne deal that began in April.